谢国忠

大宗商品是最后一个泡沫。当各国央行接受衰退是抗击通胀的必要成本时，这一泡沫就将破裂

　　【《财经》网专栏/专栏作家 谢国忠】中国1月通货膨胀率升至7.1%，为11年以来最高，而美国公布的折 年通胀率是4.3%，也为16年来高点。同时，美联储对2008年经济增长率的预测下调了0.5个百分点，仅剩1.3%到2%。美国可能已经进入经济衰 退。欧盟委员会也把欧元区2008年增长率的预测下调0.4%至1.8%，并将通胀率预测值提高0.5个百分点，至2.6%。美国似乎正在进入所谓的“滞 胀”，也就是通货膨胀与经济增长停滞同时发生。欧元区也离此不远了。
　　拥有庞大外汇储备的新兴市场经济体，其投资活动仍十分活跃。然而，根据国际货币基金组织预测，新兴市场经济体的增长率今年可能会降至6.9%，而去年 和2006年分别是7.8%和7.7%。这些国家自2003年来的年均通胀率是3.5%，我相信今年可能超过4.5%，虽然这些国家的货币在升值。它们还 没有发生滞胀，但正在往那个方向走。
　　这些情况，给人的感觉跟上世纪70年代很像：经济疲软，通胀加速，美元下跌，油价猛涨。可能有许多杰出的经济学家都对此比较深恶痛绝。他们的反对理由是：首先，石油在当今经济中所占比重有所下降；第二，各中央银行已经吸取了应对通胀的经验教训。
　　我也希望如此，但我不敢放心。今天的央行在制定政策时，经济增长是排在抑制通胀之前的。他们寄望于经济恢复后能有时间来治理通胀。但这就像是一段滑 坡，央行们的做法可能会一滑到底，置身险境。经济恢复需要时间，因此央行容忍通胀的时间越来越长。最后，会像70年代那样，只有经历一场严重的衰退，通胀 方可治愈。就算央行现在比30年前懂得更多，他们还是可能在重蹈覆辙。
　　的确，为今天的滞胀种下祸根的正是各国央行。五年前，由于担心通货紧缩，央行向金融系统输出了大量流动性。这引发了资产市场的大规模膨胀，反过来刺激 了需求。于是，世界经济看起来很完美——高增长、低通胀。但资产泡沫正在一个接一个地破灭。美国的房地产泡沫是第一个，信贷市场紧随其后，然后是全球股 市，现在轮到了债券市场。大宗商品市场则是最后一个泡沫。在其他市场中幸存的货币现在涌入商品市场，引发了更大的膨胀。有可能，央行发出的所有超额流动性 都会通过商品市场转变为通胀。
　　今天的种种悲哀都是由于央行放出了过多货币。而它们还在提议，要通过放出更多货币来减缓这种痛苦。这听起来有问题。现代经济学错就错在，它对经济疲软 有一种不经大脑的膝跳反应——放松银根。通常，如果经济走弱，通胀会减缓。但现在的循环不一样了：繁荣时，巨量货币为资产通胀火上加油，其通货膨胀效应却 延迟了。对于走弱的经济投放更多的钱，只会加剧通胀。
　　美联储知道，存在着发生那种难以控制的物价——工资螺旋式通胀上升的风险，也正努力通过与市场和公众对话来锚定通胀预期。它向公众传达的信息是，一旦 美国经济稳定下来，马上就会提高利率——这就是说，它承诺你的钱会保值。但美元都已经贬值成这样了，谁还敢听美联储的话持有美元呢？这种承诺不足为信。美 国经济正为过度支出所累。对需求的刺激放慢了对削减消费和提高储蓄的必需调整的速度。当美国经济稳定下来以后，任何美联储紧缩措施都会把它推回衰退。如果 那些美元持有者清楚这点并抛售美元，美国就将真的发生失控的螺旋式通胀。
　　中国现在的境地颇为局促。相比之下，美国的环境更能够承受通货膨胀。全世界其他国家持有价值14万亿美元的美国金融资产，几乎与美国的国内生产总值相 当。通过通货膨胀来使纸面资产贬值，对美国经济来说利大于弊。而且，美国的低收入群体负债更多，通胀造成的债务价值下降将令大部分美国人受益。中国则是一 个净债权国，拥有着约1.5万亿美元的外汇储备。中国的低收入者是净储蓄者。通胀降低了低收入人群的购买力，也降低了他们储蓄的价值。所以，通胀在美国可 能从政治角度会受到欢迎，但在中国无疑就是一个不稳定因素。
　　中美两国今年都会面临通胀，但两国将采取不同的方法来应对。中国将保持紧缩的货币政策来抑制通胀，而美国将放松银根以刺激需求。在这样的宏观环境下，人民币显然是升值的资产。而为了避免币值过度高企，中国不得不严厉控制资本流入。
　　香港则面临巨大困难。香港经济倚赖于资本市场活动，全球熊市将使香港的增长引擎熄火，大陆紧缩的资本控制更令其雪上加霜。同时，输入型通胀又在侵蚀香港中产阶级的购买力。港岛今年面临的衰退风险很高。
　　大宗商品是最后一个泡沫。越来越多种类的金融资本将涌入这个市场。这一泡沫可能规模空前，并持续至未来两年。当各国央行接受衰退是抗击通胀的必要成本 时，这一泡沫就将破裂。这可能会在2009年底或2010年初发生。所以，你仍能享受商品市场的炙手可热。买入黄金、白金或白银吧，只要是有形商品就行。 不过别持有太久。■

作者为《财经》特约经济学家、玫瑰石顾问公司董事

The Final Bubble 

来自谢国忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/

The following was just printed in South China Morning Post on 27th Feb.2008.

China reported that inflation had risen to 7.1 per cent last month, an 11-year high, and the US reported annualised inflation of 4.3 per cent, a 16-year high. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve lowered its 2008 growth forecast by half a percentage point to between 1.3 per cent and 2 per cent. The chances are that the US is already in recession. The European Commission has just cut its 2008 euro-zone growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 1.8 per cent and raised the inflation forecast by half a percentage point, to 2.6 per cent. The US seems to be entering stagflation - inflation with little or no growth. The euro zone is not far behind.

The emerging economies, with bulging foreign exchange reserves, continue to grow vigorously on investment expenditure. Nevertheless, their growth rate could fall to 6.9 per cent this year, compared with 7.8 per cent last year and 7.7 per cent in 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund. Their inflation rate has averaged 3.5 per cent since 2003 but is likely to pass 4.5 per cent this year, I believe, despite their appreciating currencies. They are not in stagflation, but they are heading that way.

It feels like the 1970s: economies weakening, inflation accelerating, the US dollar tumbling and oil prices surging. Most prominent economists abhor the comparison. The arguments against it are that, first, oil is a smaller part of the economy today and, second, that central banks have learned not to accommodate inflation. I hope so, but I am not convinced. Central banks are putting growth above inflation in their policy priorities. They hope they will have the time to deal with inflation when economies recover. Down this slippery path, central banks may get trapped; economies may take time to recover, which forces them to tolerate inflation for longer and longer. The end could be similar to that in the 1970s, when only a severe recession could cure inflation. Even though central banks know more now than three decades ago, they may still be heading down the same path.

Indeed, central banks laid the foundations for today's stagflation. They feared deflation five years ago and flooded the financial system with liquidity. That triggered massive inflation in asset markets, which in turn stimulated demand. For some time, the world economy looked perfect: high growth and low inflation. But the asset bubbles are deflating, one by one. The US property bubble was first, the credit market next, then the global equity market and now the bond market. The commodity market is the last bubble. The money that has survived other markets is pouring into commodities, causing more inflation. It is likely that all the excess liquidity central banks have released will turn into inflation through the commodity market.

All of today's woes have been caused by too much money being released by central banks. Yet they propose to alleviate the pain by releasing more money. Somehow, it doesn't sound right. The flaw of modern economics is its knee-jerk response to economic weakness: loosening the money supply. Normally, inflation tends to decline when the economy weakens. The current cycle is different: money mainly fuelled asset inflation during the boom, and the inflationary effect of this big money stock was delayed. Throwing more money at economic weakness only makes inflation worse.

The Fed knows there is a risk that inflation will spiral out of control and is trying to anchor inflation expectations through talk. It is spreading the message that it will increase interest rates rapidly as soon as the US economy stabilises - that is, it promises not to inflate away your money. It takes a brave man to hold the depreciating US dollar on the Fed's word. The promise may not be credible. The US economy is suffering from overspending. Demand stimulus slows the necessary adjustment of cutting consumption and increasing savings. Any Fed tightening, when the economy stabilises, will push it back into recession. If those holding US dollars know this, and sell now, US inflation will spiral out of control.

China is in a tight spot. The US is in a much better position to tolerate inflation. Foreigners hold over US$14 trillion of America's financial assets, about 100 per cent of its gross domestic product. Inflating away paper assets is a net positive for the US economy. Moreover, America's low-income group is more indebted, and inflating away debt benefits most Americans. China is a net creditor, as reflected in its US$1.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves. Low-income earners in China are net savers. Inflation decreases the purchasing power of low-income earners and decreases the value of their savings. Inflation may be politically popular in the US but is certainly destabilising in China.

China and the US both face inflation this year, but they will take different approaches to deal with it. China will maintain a tight monetary policy to contain inflation, while the US will loosen monetary policy to stimulate demand. The yuan is obviously an appreciating asset in such a macro scenario. To stop the currency from overshooting, China has to tightly control capital inflows.

Hong Kong faces significant difficulties. Its economy depends on capital market activity. The global bear market will shut down the Hong Kong growth engine. Mainland China's tightening capital controls will only make it worse. At the same time, imported inflation is eroding the purchasing power of Hong Kong's middle class; the city faces a high risk of recession this year.

Commodities are the last bubble. More and more financial types will get into this market. The commodity bubble may become the biggest in history over the next two years. It will burst when central banks accept a recession as a necessary cost for beating inflation. That may happen late next year or early in 2010. You can still enjoy the glow of the commodity market. Buy gold, platinum or silver; anything physical. Just don't hold it for too long.

来自谢国忠搜狐博客　http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/